Analiza stanja u Siriji nakon povlačenja sirijskih snaga iz pokrajine Ar Raqqa

Nakon višetjednog napredovanja sirijskih snaga prema gradu i zrakoplovnoj bazi Al-Tabqa u jugozapadnom dijelu pokrajine Raqqa, jučer su teroristi takozvane “Islamske države”, što je trebalo i očekivati, pokrenuli žestoki kontranapad u kojem su povratili dobar dio izgubljenog teritorija.

Sirijska vojska se povukla s bojišta Al-Tabqe i iz pokrajine Raqqa

Tijekom protekla dva dana su sirijske snage pretrpjele poraz od strane militanata “Islamske države” u provinciji Raqqa i za manje od 48 sati izgubili gotovo sve što su zauzele u protekla dva tjedna i povukle se nekoliko desetaka kilometara prema gradu Itriyah, iz kojeg je ranije pokrenuta ova ofenziva.

Sirijske snage su se povukle iza linije sela Abu Alaj i raskrižja Zakiyah, što je dokaz da “Islamska država” ne misli tako lako položiti oružje.

Protunapad ISIL-a je počeo prekjučer, 20. lipnja 2016., nakon samoubilačkog napada jednog od militanata ISIL-a na raskrižje Safia. Odmah potom su se vladine snage počele brzo i neorganizirano povlačiti. Tijekom prve noći se prilično velika grupa vojnika s opremom povukla 10-15 kilometara na zapad.

Ujutro 21. lipnja su militanti ISIL-a zauzeli selo Khirbet Zeidan na južnoj strani ceste Itriyah – Raqqa, 30 kilometara udaljeno od Al-Tabqe i 5 kilometara od naftnog polja Safiyah, kojeg su vladine snage zauzele 6. lipnja.

Navodno je odluka o brzom povlačenju donijeta jer se htjelo izbjeći da ISIL snažnim napadom južnije na cesti Itriyah – Raqqa u potpunosti zatvori u obruč glavninu sirijskih snaga koje su djelovale u tom području.

Mala skupina sirijske vojske je ostala u okruženju, a sirijski i ruski izvori navode kako je njihova sudbina nepoznata.

Nakon napada je ISIL zaustavljen na granici pokrajine Hama i Raqqa.

21. lipnja su teroristi protjerali sirijske snage iz Abu Alaja, posljednjeg sela kojeg su držale u pokrajini Raqqa. Pri povlačenju su sirijske snage izgubile više od 10 jedinica različite teške vojne opreme, a vojni izvori iz Damaska potvrđuju da su imali desetke poginulih, ranjenih i zarobljenih. Točni podaci nisu dostupni. Islamistički izvori govore o čak 300 mrtvih sirijskih vojnika i pripadnika paravojnih postrojbi, ali koliko Damask umanjuje gubitke, tako ih ISIL gotovo sigurno preuveličava.

Prema vojnom izvoru, potvrđeno je da su 23 vojnika “ubijena u akciji”, 49 vojnika je ranjeno, a deseci su trenutno “nestali u akciji”. Za potonje se smatra da su mrtvi, zarobljeni ili su ostali iza neprijateljskih linija.

Trenutno je svim sirijskim snagama koje sudjeluju u ovoj ofenzivi naređeno da ostanu u stanju pripravnosti i ne zna se hoće li se nastaviti s aktivnostima u ovom području

Povlačenje sirijskih snaga je na licu mjesta pratio ruski novinar Roman Saponkov.

“Općenito, situacija je nejasna. Ne znam kako ovo opisati, a da ne bi izazovem gnjev sirijskih drugova. Prekjučer oko 19:00 je ISIL pokrenuo napad. Nakon što je naređeno povlačenje, front se raspao i sirijska vojska se povukla na 15-20 kilometara od čvora Al-Tabqa – Deir Ez-Zor. Noću su napadi nastavljeni i ISIL je okrenuo snažan napad u području punkta “SiriyaTel Tower”. Napad na sirijske položaje je pokrenulo desetak bombaša samoubojica, a iza svakog od njih u improviziranim vozilima je išlo od 50-100 militanata. U napadu je u okruženju ostala jedna sirijska postrojba. Nije poznato koliko je ljudi ustalo u kotlu. U jutarnjim satima je neprijatelj pokrenuo napad, te bombardirao i provodio topnička granatiranja. Isti  problem je zabilježen i u području Palmire. Noćni napad u Raqqi je sinkroniziran s napadom u Palmiri. Prema nepotvrđenim izvješćima, tamo je izgubljeno nekoliko punktova. Prema podacima sirijske vojske sinoć oko 21:00, vojska se pregrupirala za protunapad”, na svojoj stranici na mreži VK.com piše Roman Saponkov.

Aleppo

Situacija u gradu Manbiju na sjeveru Aleppa, kojeg u okruženju drže Kurdi,  postaje sve teža za ISIL. Kurske YPG milicije su zatvorile sve dobavne pravce teroristima u gradu, dok je ISIL pokušao pokrenuti protuofenzivu južno od Manbija iz pravca Khirbet Al-Rousa. Na samom sjeveru Sirije je američki predsjednik Barack Obama je “blagoslovio” početak oslobođenja grada Jarabulusa na sirijsko-turskoj granici, iako još nema priopćenja o većoj kampanji sirijskih Kurda, jer je to područje na kojem Ankara ne dopušta napredovanje kurdskih YPG snaga.

Damask

U gradu Darayi, predgrađu Damaska, teroristička skupine Ahrar Al-Sham je potvrdila smrt svojih dvojice terenskih zapovjednika. Prema njihovim izvorima, teroristi su likvidirani u sukobima sa sirijskom vojskom kada su pokušali organizirati napad, koji je završio potpunim neuspjehom i gubicima u redovima militanata.

Sirijska vojska je bila uspješna u operacijama u u Istočnoj Gouti, gdje je ušla u Bahariyah i dijelove mjesta al-Maqbaraha. U tom području djeluje teroristička skupina Jaish Al-Islam.

U Mayda’aji i Hawsh Al-Farahu su sirijske snage zauzele nekoliko punktova islamističkih militanata, iako su nedavno militanti skupine Jaish Al-Islam, kako bi zaustavili njihov napredak, postrojbe sirijske vojske napali nervnim plinom

No, vraćajući se na povlačenje iz Raqqe, novinar Roman Saponkov je objavio i fotografije ruskih specijalnih snaga među sirijskim vojnicima, što potvrđuje da su i one sudjelovale u napadu na Raqqu.

Odluka o povlačenju je vjerojatno bila koordinirana, ali što to govori o odnosu Moskve i Damaska?

Ruski Vjesnik piše kako Rusija daje važnu potporu vladi Bashara Al – Assada i da je od početka sirijskog sukoba  Moskva četiri puta u Vijeću sigurnosti Ujedinjenih naroda uložila veto na rezolucije usmjerene protiv sirijske vlade. Pomogla je Assadu da uništiti kemijsko oružje, te više puta branila njegove stavove u međunarodnim pregovorima.

Unatoč potpori Assadu, postoje i pitanja o kojima se ne Moskva u Damask ne slažu.

Uz podršku ruskih zračnih snaga i ruske vojske su sirijske snage ipak preuzele inicijativu u ratu i vratile kontrolu nad nekim izgubljenim područjima, uključujući Palmiru. Čak ni pokretanje ofenzive na Raqqu ne bi bilo moguće bez sudjelovanja Rusije, a njen “uspjeh”, bez obzira na jučerašnje povlačenje, jest što su Kurdi, predvođeni američkim i francuskim instruktorima, na kraju morali prekinuti svoju ofenzivu na Raqqu i okrenuti se kampanji u Manbiju.

Međutim, između Kremlja i sirijske vlade postoje i ozbiljne proturječnosti.  Ciljevi Rusije i Assada u sirijskom sukobu se samo djelomično podudaraju, tvrdi Vladimir Ahmedov, viši istraživač na Institutu za orijentalne studije Ruske akademije znanosti.

“Interes Rusije je održavanje sekularne vlade u Siriji, ali koja će nastaviti suradnju s Moskvom. U tom smislu, za Moskvu nije važno hoće li na vlasti biti Assad ili netko drugi, što je za sirijskog predsjednika ipak veliki problem. Predstavnici sirijske vlade, kao  uvjet za početak  procesa tranzicije iz Ženevskog sporazuma, odbijaju pregovarati o predsjednikovoj ostavci”, kaže Ahmedov.

S druge strane, Grigorij Kosač, profesor na Državnom sveučilištu za humanističke znanosti Rusije, smatra kako predsjednik Sirije podržava političku tranziciju samo u formalnom smislu.

“Assad je čovjek rata i planira se boriti do kraja. On je spreman pregovarati samo s pozicije sile i ako može nametnuti svoje uvjete na opoziciji. Njemu treba vojna pobjeda i da preuzme kontrolu nad velikim dijelovima zemlje”, kaže profesor Grigorij Kosač,

“Za razliku od Rusije, Assad umjerenu sirijsku opoziciju nikada nije ni smatrao za mogućeg partnera u pregovorima. Uvijek je izjavljivao da su to teroristi koji djeluju pod vanjskim utjecajem. S ruske strane, nastaviti rat je opasno, jer se povećava rizik gubitaka. Ne možemo dopustiti eskalaciju nasilja i sudjelovanje još više ruskih vojnika u vojnim operacijama”, smatra Vladimir Ahmedov i dodaje “kako  Rusija, ne odustaje od političkog rješenja sukoba”.

Stav o Kurdima je nešto oko čega se Moskva i Damask ne slažu. Kada se u ožujku ove godine sirijski Kurdi proglasili stvaranje Federacije sjeverne Sirije, Bashar Al-Assad je bio protiv tog koraka, jer su Kurdi ovim činom de facto   proglasili nezavisnost.

“Damask ne odobrava bilo kakvu ideju federalizma, jer se boji raspada zemlje”, kaže Grigorij Kosač.

U ovom sporu između vlade i Kurda, Rusija je zauzela neutralan stav. Tajnik ruskog predsjednika, Dmitrij Peskov, komentirajući ovu situaciju izjavljuje: “Unutarnji ustroj sirijske države je stvar Sirijaca.”

Prema profesoru Kosaču, Moskva je u ovom slučaju preferirala biti oprezna. Sirijski Kurdi su vrlo učinkoviti u borbi protiv “Islamske države”, ali je Rusija još manje zainteresirana da se zbog Kurda sukobi sa službenim vlastima u Damasku.

Međutim, u veljači ove godine je u Moskvi otvoreno veleposlanstvo takozvanog “Sirijskog Kurdistana”, iako ne na službenoj razini, nego kao jedne od nevladina organizacija.

Unatoč očiglednim suprotnostima između Assada i Rusije, Kremlj  ne može sebi dozvoliti da odustane od podrške  sirijskom predsjedniku.

“Rusija za sada u Siriji ne vidi nikoga tko bi mogao zamijeniti Assada i tko bi kao on stao u obranu ruskih interesa, stoga je prisiljena podržati sve njegove inicijative”, vjeruje profesor Kosač.

Vladimir Ahmedov vjeruje da će, ako Rusija bude vršila prevelik pritisak na Bashara Al-Assada, on prekinuti suradnju s Moskvom i u potpunost se okrenuti Iranu, jer Teheran, za razliku od Rusije, ne pomišlja na mogućnost smjene vlade u Siriji i Assada podržava bezuvjetno.

Zbog toga Moskva ne kritizira sirijski režim i slaže se s mišljenjem Damaska, čak i tamo gdje ima suprotno mišljenje.

Kako će se to odraziti na situaciju na bojnom polju, vidjet će se u nadolazećim tjednima. No, to će opet biti politička odluka, iako je poznato da je ruski vojni vrh prilično nervozan i želi veći angažman na terenu, te da se prekine farsa oko “dobrih” i “loših” terorista. To je jučer izjavio i čelnik Glavnog stožera ruskih oružanih snaga, general Valerij Gerasimov, koji je rekao da je strpljenje Rusije u odnosu na situaciju u Siriji pri kraju i da treba primjenjivati silu protiv svih skupina koje se nisu pridružile primirju i koje nisu dale svoje koordinate ruskom ili američkom centru za praćenje primirja.

Vraćajući se na poraz sirijske vojske u Raqqi, razloga je nekoliko, ali su tri najvažnija:

1. Slabost sirijskih vladinih snaga u obrani  i utvrđivanju zauzetih položaja, što je činjenica poznata već duže vrijeme.

2. Nedostatak rezervi i mobilizacijskog potencijala.

3. Jak napad skupine “Jaish Al-Islam” u blizini Damaska, koji je sirijski Glavni stožer prisilio da tamo prebacio dio elitnih trupa, što je oslabilo obranu u drugim područjima.

Vjerojatno se u tom kontekstu može promatrati i povlačenje sirijskih snaga iz sela Arak, sjeverno od Palmire, te s područja crpne stanice T3 u istom području.

Sirijska vojska jednostavno nema toliko ljudstva da se bori na nekoliko frontova istovremeno, stoga se odrekla kampanje u Raqqi u korist obrane Damaska, Palmire i vjerojatno južnog Aleppa, gdje su nakon velike ofenzive Al-Nusra Fronta i drugih terorističkih skupina sirijske snage ipak uspjele utvrditi linije obrane istočno od područja izgubljenih ranije ovog mjeseca, ali i drugih područja, kao što je granica Latakije i Idliba, te bojišta dugih stotine kilometara na kojima se sirijske snage suprotstavljaju napadima raznih skupina, od “Islamske države” i Al-Nusra Fronta do skupina Jaish Al-Islam, Ahrar Al-Aham i desetine drugih koje se još uvijek bore pod zastavom nepostojeće “Slobodne sirijske vojske”.

Napad i napredovanje militanata Islamske države u Raqqi: You Tube /You Tube

FOTO – Ruski vojnici u kampanji u pokrajini Raqqa:

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FOTO – Oslobođena i izgubljena područja od listopada 2015. do 17. lipnja 2016. u južnom Aleppu:

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FOTO – Daraya južno od Damaska gdje je proveden neuspjeli napad skupine Ahrar Al-Sham i Istočna Gouta u kojoj je sirijska vojska oslobodila Bahariyah, dijelove mjesta Al-Maqbaraha i još nekoliko punktova:

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Piše: N.BABIĆ BUTKOVIĆ

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